Millville Motocross Debrief – Fantasy Analysis & Track Preview

Welcome to Spring Creek MX Park, Minnesota - a track that's not just scenic, but a true test of skill. Known for its sand-clay combo, flowing elevation, and deep ruts, this round is a favourite among riders and a potential game-changer for fantasy players.

Let's break down who's rising, who's struggling, and which riders provide real value in your fantasy picks this weekend.

Millville Pro Motocross Track Breakdown

Spring Creek flows. It's known for deep, loamy ruts, huge downhill sections like Mt. Martin, and sweeping, sandy turns that test front-end traction and throttle control. Confidence through the fast right-handers is key - especially coming out of the sand rollers and into the Chadapult. With rain in the forecast, expect a rougher, more technical track that will reward smooth riders with stamina and throttle finesse.

Tire choice will lean scoop again, just like RedBud. But bike setup will be critical. We already saw Yamaha's 250 team suffer engine failures in wet conditions last week - if the rain hits hard, reliability could play a major role.

Injury Report 

• Cooper Webb (450) - Out after knee procedure
• Julien Beaumer (250) - Out with hip injury
• Grant Harlan (450) - Out with shoulder injury
• Aaron Plessinger (450) - IN after missing RedBud with illness

Fantasy 250 Class - Key Rider Insights

• Jo Shimoda (Handicap 0) - Coming off a dominant 1-1 at RedBud, Shimoda is still a great pick even with a pro handicap. He's found form at the right time.
• Haiden Deegan (Handicap 0) - The most consistent force in the 250s, but looking to bounce back after an average Red Bud performance. 
• Levi Kitchen (Handicap 0) - The riding has been excellent, just not converting to wins. If starts improve, this could be his breakout round.
• Jeremy Martin (Handicap +31) - Massive value here. He's racing his home track and if he's anywhere near 100%, this could be the steal of the weekend.
• Jalek Swoll (Handicap +4) - Quietly impressive on his return from injury. Solid mid-pack pick with bonus potential if he sneaks inside the top 8 from great starts.
• Tom Vialle (Handicap 0) - A reliable but low-reward play. If you need stability without a big swing, he'll do the job.
• Ryder DiFrancesco (Handicap +10) - Good upside pick. If the track gets gnarly, he has the technique to hang in and score well inside the top 10.

Fantasy 450 Class - Key Rider Insights

• Jett Lawrence (Handicap 0) - He's the best in the world right now. But you need a perfect day to make the 0hcp work. Solid consistent pick and a great potential for the Holeshot bonus. 
• Chase Sexton (Handicap +6) - This is the best value in the class. After a bizarre Moto 1 at RedBud, he came alive in Moto 2 and looks ready to battle for podiums.
• Hunter Lawrence (Handicap 0) - Doing everything right, quietly. Always up for a second or third place finish to pay off well with holeshot bonus potential.
• Aaron Plessinger (Handicap 0) - He's back. Not amazing value, but a solid all-rounder if you're looking for a bounce-back performance from a fan favourite.
• Jason Anderson (Handicap +12) - Struggling, and his frustration shows. Only take the risk if you think he's due for a turnaround in the softer conditions.
• Joey Savatgy (Handicap +7) - Excellent value. Solid top 10 guy who could punch into the top 6 if things get spicy.
• Justin Barcia (Handicap +4) - One of the few who thrives when the track is rough. High risk/high reward, especially if the rain hits hard.
• Eli Tomac (Handicap 0) - Doesn't seem to have that front-runner spark right now. Combine that with bike issues last week and he's a fade for now.

Top Fantasy Picks This Weekend

250 Class:

• Jo Shimoda (0hcp)
• Levi Kitchen (0hcp)
• Jeremy Martin (+31hcp) - high risk, very high reward
• Jalek Swoll (+4hcp)

450 Class:

• Chase Sexton (+6)
• Hunter Lawrence (0hcp)
• Joey Savatgy (+7)
• Check for high hcp riders after qualifying

Strategy Tips

• Shimoda and Kitchen remain great picks in 250s with their holeshot potential. J-Mart is the swing-for-the-fences play if you're trying to gain big points.
• Sexton at +6 might be the best value of the round. If he runs top 6, you're getting big fantasy reward.
• With weather likely to impact the track, don't ignore tough, technical riders like Barcia, Plessinger or Swoll - they shine when others struggle.
• Keep an eye on qualifying for the high hcp riders who qualify through to the motos There's usually some good potential for big points.

Final Thoughts

Spring Creek is one of the most exciting rounds of the year. With a forecast that could turn this into a rutted warzone, fantasy points will be up for grabs in ways that typical rounds don't offer. Be bold, trust the handicaps, and play the conditions. This could be the week you jump ahead in the standings - or the week your underdog picks pay off big.

Let's go racing.